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  • Conditional probability and conditional expectation
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  • Change of measure and Girsanov's theorem

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Change of measure

Controls

New measure Q = N(μ, 1)
1.00
-22
Samples from P = N(0, 1)
10,000
100100000
Reference
Weight of a sample at x
dQ/dP = exp(μx − μ²/2)
Same samples, new weights
−4−3−2−1012345sample value x00.10.20.30.40.5density012345weight ww > 5 off the chartmean under Pμ = 1.00samples drawn under P = N(0, 1)the same samples, weightedweight w(x) = dQ/dP
plain mean, under P
0.006
mean weight
1.002 ≈ 1
weighted mean, under Q
1.010 ≈ μ
effective sample size
3,533 of 10,000

About this tool

A new probability measure Q on the same outcomes can be built by reweighting: each outcome x counts with a weight dQ/dP(x). The weight exp(μx − μ²/2) turns standard normal samples into N(μ, 1) samples without moving a single point. Slide μ and watch the samples keep their places while the weights, and with them the weighted histogram, change. Pricing works the same way: the real-world measure P and the risk-neutral measure Q share every path and differ only in the weights, and Girsanov's theorem gives the weight for whole Brownian paths.